December EUA futures · model-driven market state and historical context
OverviewModelHistoryValidation
MODEL STATE
—
—
5Y rolling OOS score percentile · not a probability
EUA PRICE
—
—
HISTORICAL 4W RETURN
—
Mean after same model state
POSITIVE 4W CASES
—
—
December EUA price + historical model regimes
Walk-forward OOS model states. Use the time machine to inspect any historical week.
BearishNeutralBullish- - Actual next 4 weeks
SELECTED DATE
—
ACTUAL NEXT 4W RETURN
Hidden
4W END DATE / PRICE
Click “Reveal next 4 weeks”
Model score history
Rolling percentile with fixed 20% and 60% state thresholds.
Time Machine
Select any historical OOS week. “Hide future” stops at that date. “Reveal next 4 weeks” shows the actual realized EUA path after that signal.
Historical outcomes by model state
Average subsequent 4-week EUA return across all historical Bearish, Neutral and Bullish observations. This is not the selected week's realized return.
Why this signal?
Top OOS SHAP drivers at selected date.
Model validation snapshot
True weekly walk-forward OOS evidence. At each prediction week, the model uses only prior information from a rolling 5-year training window; observations whose 4-week target was not yet realized are excluded. The forecast target is the direction of the next 4-week EUA return. The audited state-ranking sample contains 701 OOS weeks (2012-12-14 to 2026-05-15).